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Estimating the Economic Impact of an Increase in Inbound Tourism on the German Economy Using TSA Results

Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung

^* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: ahlert{at}gws-os.de.

	Abstract

This article shows which additional analysis options are available within the framework of model-based macroeconomic analyses using structural information provided by tourism satellite accounts (TSAs). Based on their modular, product-specific documentation of results, TSAs provide optimal linkages to input–output models. In addition to the use of the simple input–output approaches, dynamically formulated macroeconomic structural models should be considered. After a brief characterization of the main demands placed on a macroeconomic model, the dynamic macroeconomic forecasting and simulation model for the German economy, Interindustry Forecasting Germany (INFORGE), is presented. Against the background of Germany being able to increase its market share in international tourism over the next several years, the corresponding scenario is elaborated in more specific terms using TSA results. After an explanation of the assumed scenario relating to the future development of inbound tourism, some simulation results using the INFORGE model to estimate the overall effects on income and employment are presented.

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