This Article Full Text (PDF) References Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Citation Map Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Alert me to new issues of the journal Add to Saved Citations Download to citation manager Request Permissions Request Reprints Add to My Marked Citations Citing Articles Citing Articles via HighWire Citing Articles via Google Scholar Citing Articles via Scopus Google Scholar Articles by Song, H. Articles by Witt, S. F. Search for Related Content Social Bookmarking                         What's this?

Tourism Forecasting: The General-to-Specific Approach

School of Management, University of Surrey, United Kingdom.

Stephen F. Witt

School of Management, University of Surrey, United Kingdom, the Centre for Regional and Tourism Research, Bornholm, Denmark.

The general-to-specific approach to econometric modeling and forecasting has a clear strategy in model specification, estimation, and selection and is demonstrated in the context of international tourism demand. A general autoregressive distributed lag model is reduced to various specific models by imposing parameter restrictions, and model selection is based on restriction tests, consistency with economic theory, and diagnostic statistics. The models are estimated using data on inbound tourism to South Korea from its four major generating countries: Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Statistical tests show that a unique model specification across origin countries is not appropriate.

Key Words: econometric model • general to specific • specific to general • restriction tests • forecast accuracy

Journal of Travel Research, Vol. 42, No. 1, 65-74 (2003)
DOI: 10.1177/0047287503253939


CiteULike    Complore    Connotea    Del.icio.us    Digg    Reddit    Technorati    Twitter    What's this?

This article has been cited by other articles:

				Haiyan Song, S. F. Witt, K. F. Wong, and D. C. Wu An Empirical Study of Forecast Combination in Tourism Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, February 1, 2009; 33(1): 3 - 29. [Abstract] [PDF]

				P. Gut and S. Jarrell Silver Lining on a Dark Cloud: The Impact of 9/11 on a Regional Tourist Destination Journal of Travel Research, November 1, 2007; 46(2): 147 - 153. [Abstract] [PDF]

				G. Yu and Z. Schwartz Forecasting Short Time-Series Tourism Demand with Artificial Intelligence Models Journal of Travel Research, November 1, 2006; 45(2): 194 - 203. [Abstract] [PDF]

				G. Li, H. Song, and S. F. Witt Recent Developments in Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Journal of Travel Research, August 1, 2005; 44(1): 82 - 99. [Abstract] [PDF]

				J. Rossello, E. Aguilo, and A. Riera Modeling Tourism Demand Dynamics Journal of Travel Research, August 1, 2005; 44(1): 111 - 116. [Abstract] [PDF]

				C. Lim and M. McAleer Analyzing the Behavioral Trends in Tourist Arrivals from Japan to Australia Journal of Travel Research, May 1, 2005; 43(4): 414 - 421. [Abstract] [PDF]