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Journal of Travel Research
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Modeling Tourism Demand Dynamics

Jaume Rosselló

Department d’Economia Aplicada of the Universitat de les Illes Balears, 07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain, Centre de Recerca Econòmica (CRE) UIB—"Sa Nostra", CSIC Associate Unit through the IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), jrossello{at}uib.es

Eugeni Aguiló

Department d’Economia Aplicada of the Universitat de les Illes Balears, 07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain, Centre de Recerca Econòmica (CRE) UIB—"Sa Nostra", CSIC Associate Unit through the IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB)

Antoni Riera

Department d’Economia Aplicada of the Universitat de les Illes Balears, 07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain, Centre de Recerca Econòmica (CRE) UIB—"Sa Nostra", CSIC Associate Unit through the IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB)

This article applies a combination of a diffusion model and a traditional tourism demand model for visitor demand estimation. The diffusion model assumes that information is transmitted to a society’s potential consumers through various different information channels. The traditional model suggests, however, that tourism, according to economic theory, depends mainly on fares, income, exchange rates, and dummy variables. Using data for tourists to the Balearic Islands, we found evidence that individuals undergo a prior process of acquiring information before deciding to visit a particular destination.

Key Words: demand • diffusion • modeling

Journal of Travel Research, Vol. 44, No. 1, 111-116 (2005)
DOI: 10.1177/0047287505276602


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