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Recent Developments in Econometric Modeling and Forecasting

School of Management, University of Surrey, United Kingdom

Haiyan Song

School of Hotel and Tourism Management, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China

Stephen F. Witt

School of Hotel and Tourism Management, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, University of Surrey, United Kingdom

Eighty-four post-1990 empirical studies of international tourism demand modeling and forecasting using econometric approaches are reviewed. New developments are identified, and it is shown that applications of advanced econometric methods improve the understanding of international tourism demand. An examination of the 22 studies that compare forecasting performance suggests that no single forecasting method can outperform the alternatives in all cases. The time-varying parameter (TVP) model and structural time-series model with causal variables, however, perform consistently well.

Key Words: tourism demand • modeling • forecasting

Journal of Travel Research, Vol. 44, No. 1, 82-99 (2005)
DOI: 10.1177/0047287505276594


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