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A Dynamic Model of Sustainable Tourism

Robert J. Johnston

Connecticut Sea Grant College Program and assistant professor of agricultural and resource economics, University of Connecticut

Timothy J. Tyrrell

School of Community Resources and Development at Arizona State University

Operational definitions of tourism sustainability require details regarding what is to be sustained, for whom it is to be sustained, and the level at which it is to be sustained. This article develops a dynamic model illustrating the interrelated behavior of tourism-related economic and environmental conditions throughout time. We characterize fundamental notions of sustainable tourism from the perspectives of both a profit-maximizing tourist industry and that of permanent residents of a tourist community. The model illustrates findings relevant to the search for sustainable outcomes and characterizes potential conflicts implicit in different sustainable and nonsustainable paths. The model demonstrates that (1) in all but the most rare of circumstances, there is no single, universal sustainable optimum; and (2) a policy that maintains overly pristine environmental quality may be just as unsustainable—from the perspective of either the tourism industry or residents—as a policy that causes excessive environmental decay.

Key Words: tourism • sustainability • optimal control • economics

Journal of Travel Research, Vol. 44, No. 2, 124-134 (2005)
DOI: 10.1177/0047287505278987
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