Advanced Search

Journal Navigation

Journal Home

Subscriptions

Archive

Contact Us

Table of Contents

Click here to learn more!

Click here to sign up for SAGE Journal Email Alerts today!

Sign In to gain access to subscriptions and/or personal tools.
Journal of Travel Research
This Article
Right arrow Full Text (PDF)
Right arrow References
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Services
Right arrow Email this article to a friend
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Add to Saved Citations
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Right arrowRequest Permissions
Right arrow Request Reprints
Right arrow Add to My Marked Citations
Citing Articles
Right arrow Citing Articles via Google Scholar
Right arrow Citing Articles via Scopus
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by Vu, J. C.
Right arrow Articles by Turner, L. W.
Right arrow Search for Related Content
Social Bookmarking
Add to CiteULike   Add to Complore   Add to Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us   Add to Digg   Add to Reddit   Add to Technorati   Add to Twitter  
What's this?

Regional Data Forecasting Accuracy: The Case of Thailand

Jo Chau Vu

School of Applied Economics at Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia

Lindsay W. Turner

School of Applied Economics at Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia

This article focuses on nine city-based regions in Thailand, using accommodation data from 1996 to 2002. The basic structural and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used, with an ex ante forecasting period 2003 to 2004. Forecasts are derived regionally, and accuracy is compared using a benchmark of the forecasts for the whole of Thailand. The analysis determines whether it is possible to accurately forecast interregional tourist arrivals. The findings are that more accurate regional forecasts can be derived than international arrivals forecasts in this case and that a comparison of domestic and international regional arrivals forecasts is very useful in examining potential future tourism-based regional growth. Consequently, regional arrivals data are useful for accurately forecasting regional tourism demand not only in Thailand but also for other countries where regional data are available, such as China and India, to examine the impact of tourism either economically or socially.

Key Words: arrivals forecasting • regional forecasting • forecasting accuracy • tourism forecasting

Journal of Travel Research, Vol. 45, No. 2, 186-193 (2006)
DOI: 10.1177/0047287506291600
Add to CiteULike CiteULike   Add to Complore Complore   Add to Connotea Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us Del.icio.us   Add to Digg Digg   Add to Reddit Reddit   Add to Technorati Technorati   Add to Twitter Twitter    What's this?