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Journal of Travel Research
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Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality

Bas Amelung

International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable Development at the University of Maastricht in the Netherlands

Sarah Nicholls

Departments of Community, Agriculture, Recreation and Resource Studies (formerly Park, Recreation and Tourism Resources), and Geography, at Michigan State University in East Lansing, United States

David Viner

Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in Norwich, United Kingdom

Tourism is a climate-dependent industry, and many destinations owe their popularity to their pleasant climates during traditional holiday seasons. This article explores the potential implications of climate change for global tourism, with special emphasis on seasonality. Combination of two climate change scenarios with the Tourism Climatic Index reveals that the locations of climatically ideal tourism conditions are likely to shift poleward under projected climate change. Whereas destinations such as the Mediterranean may see shifts in their peak seasons from summer months to current shoulder periods, regions in higher latitudes are likely to experience a lengthening of their summer seasons. The effects of these changes will depend greatly on the flexibility demonstrated by institutions and tourists as they react to climate change, with substantial implications for both spatial and temporal redistribution of tourism activities. The reader is referred to http://www.carrs.msu.edu/Main/People/faculty%20bios/extra/nicho210- journal.pdf to view the full series of color maps accompanying these analyses.

Key Words: climate change • seasonality • Tourism Climatic Index (TCI)

Journal of Travel Research, Vol. 45, No. 3, 285-296 (2007)
DOI: 10.1177/0047287506295937
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[Abstract] [PDF]