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Cointegration and Causality between Tourism and Poverty Reduction

University of Florida

Manuel Vanegas, Sr.

Arizona State University

This study, using cointegration and causality tests, investigates the relationship among tourism development, economic expansion, and poverty reduction in Nicaragua. The results indicate a long-run stable relationship among the three. The causality tests suggest a one-way Granger causal relation between tourism development and economic expansion, and between tourism and poverty reduction, and a bidirectional causal relation between economic expansion and poverty. The nexus of tourism, economic expansion, and poverty reduction is established in the Nicaraguan economy. This result is supported by testing the sensitivity of the Granger causality test under different lag selections along the optimal lag. The empirical evidence points to the potential economic muscle of tourism to seriously tackle Nicaraguan poverty at scale through helping both Nicaragua's public and private sectors allocate resources to tourism development, resulting in the overall improvement of the economy.

Key Words: tourism • economic growth • poverty • cointegration technique • causality

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